One of the major religion-related news headlines today revolves around the decline of Christianity in North America. Western Europe is now considered post-Christian and surveys consistently report declines in religious belief, attendance, and self-identification. Yet, over the last century, there has been a pronounced shift of Christianity from the Global North to the Global South, with dramatic growth of Christian populations in places like sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. This article provides a nuanced analysis to a big, global question about the world’s largest religion: is it shrinking, or is it shifting?
Africa became the continent with the most Christians in 2018, surpassing Latin America (which surpassed Europe in 2014). The percentage of the world that is Christian has changed very little over the last 120 years. In 1900, 34.5 percent of the world was Christian; in 2020, the figure is 32.3 percent. This relative stability, however, masks dramatic changes in Christianity’s demographics. 82 percent of all Christians in 1900 lived in Europe and North America; by 2020 this figure had dropped dramatically to 33 percent.
The perception of Christianity around the world today is that it is a white religion, which is fair because for the last 1,000 years or so, it was. White, western history, theology, and training were dominant and were exported around the world for centuries.
However, despite the perception, the reality is that Christianity is a majority non-white religion. Christianity’s shift is also evident in the mother tongues of Christians: the language with the most Christian speakers is Spanish (because of Latin America, not Spain), followed by English, Portuguese (because of Brazil, not Portugal), Russian (because of the Russian Orthodox), and Mandarin Chinese.
However, to really tease out the shrinking versus shifting question, a continental approach is required. In many ways Africa is hailed as the ‘success story’ of World Christianity, growing from 9 percent Christian in 1900 to 49 percent in 2020. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the most profound, rising from 1 percent to 95 percent over that same period. The fastest growth was found among house churches in China, which represents 56 million Christians today.
Now, for the shrinking. Europe has become less Christian over the past 120 years, from 95 percent to 76 percent. North America has also experienced a decline (97 percent to 72 percent) but it is also the continent home to the country with the most Christians, the United States. The decline of white Christianity in the USA has been somewhat offset by the increase of immigrant Christians–documented or otherwise–largely from Latin America..
The most important case for the shrinking of Christianity is the North Africa-West Asia region, which includes Iraq, Syria, Israel, Palestine, and Turkey. This region has been under enormous pressure in the 20th and 21st centuries and has experienced a precipitous drop in its Christian population, from 12.7 percent to 4.2 percent in 2020. Turkey in particular was 22 percent Christian in 1900 and is only 0.2 percent Christian today.
As Christians, we belong to at least two global families. First, we were born into the human race–this beautiful mosaic of peoples, languages, ethnicities and cultures. While we celebrate the joys of being part of this rich tapestry, we are increasingly aware of the challenges of being woven together in it. Having the knowledge and resources to live well, we still flounder when trying to work together to ‘save’ our planet.
Second, we belong to a global Christian family made up of 2.5 billion people (about a third of the human family). With Christians found in every country of the world, we are not homogeneous or monolithic, but a diverse assembly representing thousands of peoples and languages. There are likely as many as 45,000 denominations! We may speak the local language, but we are all related to each other by our global faith.
Our global Christian family is defined by the interaction and sharing among different local forms of Christianity. While we work out that faith in our local contexts, we share a global awareness of our common faith and global family identity.